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post #376 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 11:17 AM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Bit of an anti-climax to what has been a pretty enjoyable season, for many reasons. So, as perhaps expected, Ferrer didn't so much as even trouble Kohlschreiber, which means that he won't qualify among the top 8. As concerns Roddick, Del Potro and Simon...Roddick is basically qualified, Del Potro is 99.9% assured, and Simon probably has no reason to worry, either.

Blake is the nearest challenger to the top 8, but he lies 31pts behind, meaning that he MUST now make the final if he is to stay in the running. Considering his current level of play, and the difficult opponents he would have to beat (Kohlschreiber, Federer and any of Djokovic, Simon or Roddick), his chances are less than 2%.

Tsonga is next in line, and 51pts behind...he MUST also make the final, and has as small a chance as Blake, needing to beat the same opposition en-route. Nalbandian, at 66pts behind, needs to win the title...even less likely, considering that Del Potro, Murray, Nadal, Djokovic and Federer stand in his way. What's more, if Simon beats Roddick today (very possible), he'd push the bar up for Tsonga...he'd need to win the whole event.

Finally, away from the battle at the top...Cilic has sealed the Croat #1 Race ranking , while Bolelli's R2 defeat to Blake means that Seppi reigns supreme in Italy, with Bolelli finishing a handful of points behind.

Last edited by El Burro; 10-30-2008 at 03:14 PM.
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post #377 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 11:48 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

^Thanks for the analysis ,very clear and well written
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post #378 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 12:57 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Update: With Del Potro's loss to Nalbandian, Roddick is now secured of his spot.

Monfils
Win: (and not 1 of)
Sim QF, Bla RU

Verdasco
Win: (and not 1 of)
Sim SF, Bla RU

Nalbandian
Win: (and not 2 of)
Sim SF, Bla RU

Tsonga
Win: Secured
RU: (and not 1 of)
Sim QF, Nal Win, Ver Win, Mon Win

Blake
Win: Secured
RU: Secured

Simon
Win: Secured
RU: Secured
SF: Secured
QF: (and not 1 of)
Bla RU, Tso Win, Nal Win, Ver Win
3R: (and not 1 of)
Bla RU, Tso RU, Nal Win, Ver Win, Mon Win

Del Potro
3R: (and not 2 of)
Sim SF, Bla RU, Tso Win, Nal Win

Roddick
Secured

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post #379 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 01:13 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Wow, if Andy Roddick wins from Simon, it will be still an exciting end of the week. Although, all other players will need a win over Federer/Nadal!

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post #380 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 01:50 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Del Potro is a doubt for Masters Cup (if he clinches that spot). He´s been advised to stop for 15 days in order to solve that toe nail problem he has hampered him today
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post #381 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 02:02 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Well, it gets less complicated every hour!

Monfils
Win: (and not 1 of)
Bla RU

Verdasco
Win: (and not 1 of)
Bla RU

Nalbandian
Win: (and not 2 of)
Bla RU

Tsonga
Win: Secured
RU: (and not 1 of)
Nal Win, Ver Win, Mon Win

Blake
Win: Secured
RU: Secured

Simon
3R: (and not 1 of)
Bla RU, Tso RU, Nal Win, Ver Win, Mon Win

Del Potro
3R: (and not 2 of)
Bla RU, Tso Win, Nal Win

Roddick
Secured[/QUOTE]

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post #382 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 02:11 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

rvugt, If i interpret the list correctly, isn't Nalby guaranteed a spot if he wins, since Simon isn't making the semifinals?

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lol, who will beat him? Wawrinka? Berdych? Gulbis? Rosol? Federer?

Only Del Potro can take him out before the semis, and he won't. Nadal is winning the AO, bet your house on it.
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post #383 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 02:16 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Yup, Nalbandian has it in his own control again after Simon's loss.

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post #384 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 02:45 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

so nalbandian can clinch simon's spot if he wins this thing.

blake is out with 99% certainty

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post #385 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 02:59 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by rvugt View Post
Well, it gets less complicated every hour!
One more update to these scenarios. With regards to Del Potro's position, if Tsonga wins the title, it actually guarantees Delpo a spot, since Tsonga would eliminate Blake before the finals, and prevent Nalbo from winning. So Delpo can only be knocked out of Shanghai if Nalbo wins over Blake in the final.
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post #386 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 03:12 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Thanks for the news, Deivid...interesting, indeed.

Thanks to Elikian for the update on Roddick...it appears that he has now qualified, mathematically. In doing so, he has also done other players a favour, and also anyone still scratching their heads over how the results this week will affect the TMC line-up.

So, simply put, with Simon and Del Potro both out, and unable to add to their scores...the task for the other players is to close down the gap. As it currently stands, Blake and Tsonga need to make the final, and everyone else (incl. Nalbandian) needs to secure the title (apologies for the earlier mistake with Nalbandian).
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post #387 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 03:25 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Oh, and, mathematically, there are only 5 players outside the current top 8 left in contention:

Blake - needs final
Tsonga - needs final
Nalbandian - needs title
Verdasco - needs title
Monfils - needs title (automatically eliminated if Blake makes the final etc).
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post #388 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 03:42 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Yes, so there are two options that can eliminate Del Potro:
either Nalbandian def Blake or Tsonga def Blake finals.

edit: I confused Tsonga with Monfils. Tsonga is indeed in the lower draw, so yeah, only Nalb def Blake.

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post #389 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 03:55 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

If James wins tommorow, as well as Roddick, so they can make an arrangement with Blake reaching final

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post #390 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2008, 06:59 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

If both Federer and Roddick lose their next matches Simon is out.
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