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post #211 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 03:35 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Novak is so close to JesusFed

"Poor is the man whose pleasures depend on the permission of another" .. Madonna

Drooling after Schuettler, Bolelli, Volandri, Starace (short haired version), ToJo, Tursunov, Alves, Petzschner, Simon, Qureshi, Steve Johnson
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post #212 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 06:01 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Gasquet isn't even in the top 25, what a waste of talent to not see him in there..
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post #213 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-10-2008, 06:39 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by groundstroke View Post
Gasquet isn't even in the top 25, what a waste of talent to not see him in there..
Well, you can see him now...but not in the top 25, as you say. I've extended top 25 to top 40, given that we are now entering the business end of the Race to Shanghai.
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post #214 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-14-2008, 06:10 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Simon's Bucharest title defence pushes him up 3 places in the standings to #12, and 48 pts off the #8 placed Blake, who currently occupies the all-important last seat to Shanghai. As you can expect, there were no significant movers this week, although Moya and Acasuso have each climbed a few places (and into the top 40), courtesy of their strong runs.

With Davis Cup on the agenda this week (and Bangalore cancelled), the Race to Shanghai will take a week's break.
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post #215 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-16-2008, 06:11 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

I am Really Cheering for DelPotro to make it. His game is so exciting, it will be much more fun with him in the mix. Lets hope Davydenko and Ferrer won't make it. They will put us to sleep as usual....zzzzzzzzzzzz.
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post #216 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-25-2008, 03:56 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Okay, we've entered the business end of the season...the all-important last 6 weeks, featuring the frantic scramble for the last 4 official tickets to Shanghai.

There are only two Masters events left (Madrid and Paris), in which ANY player can make up significant ground...otherwise, it is down to what the guys can do in their remaining optionals events...in which case, their "best 5th" result (recorded in brackets, 5th column) takes on increased significance, as each day goes by...


Just to make a comparison to last year...in 2007, we saw probably the most exciting final week (TMS Paris) of any Race to the Tennis Masters Cup (since its inception, in 2000), with the player ranked as low as #25 (Nalbandian) having a mathematical shot at qualifying for the all-important 8th place. More importantly, just 14 pts (!) separated Haas in 8th, from Ljubicic in 15th place. This year, the situation looks like it could be a lot different, with Ferrer, Roddick, Blake, (Wawrinka), Del Potro, Gonzalez and Simon likely to lead a fierce fight (expected to be amongst themselves, really) for the final tickets, leaving everyone else in their wake.

Last edited by El Burro; 09-25-2008 at 04:08 PM.
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post #217 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-25-2008, 03:59 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

I've updated the standings to reflect the QF stages of Bangkok and Beijing.

Further to my immediate post, above, you'll notice that Roddick and Soderling are the only QF'ists yet to add any points to their rankings totals this week, but each will be able to (Soderling +7 pts, Roddick +3 pts) if they can make it through to the SF.
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post #218 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-27-2008, 04:01 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Roger still has a chance to over Rafa at the end of year

GO Roger Federer, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Vasek Pospisil, Thomaz Bellucci, Kei Nishikori, , Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, Grigor Dimitrov, Dennis Novikov and Bernard Tomic

Thiem will be top three by Dec 2016
Borna Coric will be No 1 by Dec 2017
Nick Kyrgios will be No 1 by Jan 2018
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post #219 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-27-2008, 04:41 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Roger still has a chance to over Rafa at the end of year
Mathematically, yes, but practically it would be extremely unlikely.

Federer is 344 points down. Winning Madrid, Paris and Shanghai (undefeated), nets him 350 points. Basel and Stockholm would be another 90 (I think).

So with a magic, crazy 2004 Federer style run, he could get 96 ahead before counting any points Nadal earns. Now, Nadal will only play Madrid, Paris and Shanghai, so it is possible that he might not earn 96 points from those three if he's out before semifinals at all three.

But again, practically, one loss will end Fed's hopes, and two or three losses the rest of the year for Fed will mathematically eliminate him, though this cannot happen until Madrid.

I suspect Federer will focus more on preparing for Australia than for reclaiming #1, given his long odds.
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post #220 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-27-2008, 09:09 AM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Mathematically, yes, but practically it would be extremely unlikely.

Federer is 344 points down. Winning Madrid, Paris and Shanghai (undefeated), nets him 350 points. Basel and Stockholm would be another 90 (I think).

So with a magic, crazy 2004 Federer style run, he could get 96 ahead before counting any points Nadal earns. Now, Nadal will only play Madrid, Paris and Shanghai, so it is possible that he might not earn 96 points from those three if he's out before semifinals at all three.

But again, practically, one loss will end Fed's hopes, and two or three losses the rest of the year for Fed will mathematically eliminate him, though this cannot happen until Madrid.

I suspect Federer will focus more on preparing for Australia than for reclaiming #1, given his long odds.
Unless they have changed the points weighting, it should be another 95 (50 + 45).

Anyway, you're right in saying that Federer can barely afford to lose...and Nadal could still freeze him out anyway.
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post #221 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-27-2008, 02:29 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Unless they have changed the points weighting, it should be another 95 (50 + 45).
Yeah, my mistake, stevegtennis had Stockholm as 200 entry points for the win, but the ATP says it's 225, and that makes more sense given the prize money.
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post #222 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-27-2008, 02:58 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
Unless they have changed the points weighting, it should be another 95 (50 + 45).

Anyway, you're right in saying that Federer can barely afford to lose...and Nadal could still freeze him out anyway.
If roger does lose, novak ready to pounce. he still has a chance of taking number 2 from roger.

This probably been the most exciting atp race for a long time. The still alot of players within a chance in getting into the tennis master cup.
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post #223 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-28-2008, 07:27 AM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Now the Race starts to get a little more interesting...in reaching the final, Roddick adds a handful of points to his total (enough for him to leapfrog Ferrer, into #6), but, more importantly, he improves his "best 5th" countable points to 20 (from 12, at the start of the week). Only Davydenko has a stronger set of optionals results ("best 5th" is 22 pts) and you'll notice that Ferrer and Blake are also on a "best 5th" of 15pts, respectively...meaning that each of the guys currently in line for the last 4 Shanghai tickets have little to gain from 3 of the remaining 5 weeks of the regular season (barring runner-up/title finishes). Immediate beneficiaries look to be the tightly-knit group of Wawrinka, Del Potro and Gonzalez, who would each be rewarded handsomely for any notable performance(s)...
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post #224 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-28-2008, 07:31 AM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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If roger does lose, novak ready to pounce. he still has a chance of taking number 2 from roger.

This probably been the most exciting atp race for a long time. The still alot of players within a chance in getting into the tennis master cup.
At the moment, a good number of players still stand a mathematical chance, yes, but I think the final last couple of weeks of the regular season won't be anywhere near as exciting as they were last year...I reckon only a handful of guys will have a realistic shot at "stealing" the last ticket(s) (quite possibly only Wawrinka, Del Potro and Gonzalez being within good enough reach), whereas, a few days ago, I highlighted the minimal points difference (14?) between Haas (at #8) and Ljubicic (at #15/16), going into the final week of the 2007 season. The number of possible "combinations" arising out of a single result were quite mind-blowing.
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post #225 of 471 (permalink) Old 09-28-2008, 10:35 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

tsonga will have 250 points and be number 14 on monday.
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