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post #136 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-03-2008, 08:39 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by stebs View Post
I think it is inevitable that Nadal will take a big lead into Wimbledon. For me I think that the grass court event may be the most important for Nadal in terms of aiming for the #1 spot. Reason for this is that it seems highly likely that he will have very solid but not outstanding results at the summer HC AMS events, at the USO and probably the same again indoors. I am not saying he may not find his way to win a title but overall I think we can say he will probably be getting deep but losing these ones. At Wimbledon though I really think there is a far greater level of variance for him and for Djokovic. I could easily see either of them being in the final but it's not a stretch either to see one of them out by the 4th round. Will be an interesting one.
Curious what you think now stebs, given that Rafa has reached SF at least and scored more points than expected at Queens.

Is he your favourite to end the year at #1? Fed is still mine, assuming he wins Wimbledon.
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post #137 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-03-2008, 09:45 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by DrJules View Post
This year the number 1 ranking could go to the last match.

Nadal will enter the hard court season with a large lead over Federer and Djokovic, but will probably need it as Federer and Djokovic are much better on hard courts than Nadal.
Agree.

And I doubt I'm alone in thinking that Federer almost HAS to win the Wimbledon title if he is to restrain Nadal. I mean, if he loses the final to Nadal, the lead is extended to 270 pts...this will be VERY difficult for Fed to break down if Nadal is able to post consistently excellent (SF's etc) results in the season's remaining mandatories...which I believe he can. And if I were Fed were right now, I'd be crapping a brick based on the level of play Nadal has been showing off over the last month or more.

If Federer defends his Wimbledon title, the lead is cut from 210 pts to 150 pts...not nearly as daunting.

Obviously we're kinda overlooking Nole...but I wonder if he'll suffer a burnout similar to the last few weeks of last season. Certainly that defeat to Safin, last week, had the hallmarks of a repeat, although obviously that is only one result.
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post #138 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-04-2008, 03:19 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

One thing for sure, it's gettin' really interesting!
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post #139 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-04-2008, 09:18 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Gilles View Post
Agree.

And I doubt I'm alone in thinking that Federer almost HAS to win the Wimbledon title if he is to restrain Nadal. I mean, if he loses the final to Nadal, the lead is extended to 270 pts...this will be VERY difficult for Fed to break down if Nadal is able to post consistently excellent (SF's etc) results in the season's remaining mandatories...which I believe he can. And if I were Fed were right now, I'd be crapping a brick based on the level of play Nadal has been showing off over the last month or more.

If Federer defends his Wimbledon title, the lead is cut from 210 pts to 150 pts...not nearly as daunting.

Obviously we're kinda overlooking Nole...but I wonder if he'll suffer a burnout similar to the last few weeks of last season. Certainly that defeat to Safin, last week, had the hallmarks of a repeat, although obviously that is only one result.
If Federer doesn't win Wimbledon, he won't be able to finish the year at #1 unless both Djokovic and Nadal have a really horrible second half of the season and actually considering it'll most likely be Nadal he loses to in the final it wouldn't be very fair if Nadal doesn't end the year at #1 in case he has 2 GS titles for the season. As for Djokovic, the early loss has made it more difficult for him to reach #1 but I don't think he'll have a burnout similar to the fall last year, I think he'll be going deep in most and probably winning a couple of the remaining HC AMS and the USO.
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post #140 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-04-2008, 02:57 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Federer surpasses Djoker for the second place in the race
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post #141 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-04-2008, 04:46 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

I wonder if fed will start to participate in MMs if the points get tight. he still has 3 tournaments he can get points in considering his early exit in dubai. If he wants to mantain #1 the next few years, i think he is going to have to grind it out.

my pick for the top in year
Federer
Nadal
Djokovic
Ferrer
Davydenko
Roddick
Murray
Naldandian

Doesn't seem like Almagro will be mantaining his position for long. Hopefully Gasquet can have a turnaround but i highly doubt so. Blake may still be a contender for the eighth spot though, like he usually is.
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post #142 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-04-2008, 05:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Byeeeeeeee Nole. Most likely the end of any serious campaign he had going for year-end #1.
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post #143 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-05-2008, 12:11 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

So Nadal is the first player to qualify for TMC or am I wrong?
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post #144 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-05-2008, 02:42 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

01 (01) Rafael Nadal (ESP) 895 (05) WIM F
02 (03) Roger Federer (SUI) 685 (--) WIM F
03 (02) Novak Djokovic (SRB) 649 (--)

Top three changes again

GO Roger Federer, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Vasek Pospisil, Thomaz Bellucci, Kei Nishikori, , Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, Grigor Dimitrov, Dennis Novikov and Bernard Tomic

Thiem will be top three by Dec 2016
Borna Coric will be No 1 by Dec 2017
Nick Kyrgios will be No 1 by Jan 2018
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post #145 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-05-2008, 02:43 AM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by GuiroNl View Post
So Nadal is the first player to qualify for TMC or am I wrong?
YES, your right

GO Roger Federer, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, Vasek Pospisil, Thomaz Bellucci, Kei Nishikori, , Milos Raonic, Jerzy Janowicz, Grigor Dimitrov, Dennis Novikov and Bernard Tomic

Thiem will be top three by Dec 2016
Borna Coric will be No 1 by Dec 2017
Nick Kyrgios will be No 1 by Jan 2018
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post #146 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-05-2008, 12:43 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by GuiroNl View Post
So Nadal is the first player to qualify for TMC or am I wrong?
Isn't Djokovic already qualified as well because for a GS champion it's sufficient to be within the top 20 to be allowed to go the TMC.
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post #147 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-05-2008, 01:45 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by anon57 View Post
Isn't Djokovic already qualified as well because for a GS champion it's sufficient to be within the top 20 to be allowed to go the TMC.
Basically, yeah.

But at the moment it isn't mathematically certain that he will finish in the top 8, although he must be 98% guaranteed, at this stage, anyway. I'd guess that by the end of the two upcoming TMS events it will be impossible for another 6 players to overtake him.

Really, with the number of points he has, it is unlikely he will finish outside the top 5, even if he doesn't play another event for the rest of the season.
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post #148 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-05-2008, 02:27 PM
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Gilles View Post
Basically, yeah.

But at the moment it isn't mathematically certain that he will finish in the top 8, although he must be 98% guaranteed, at this stage, anyway. I'd guess that by the end of the two upcoming TMS events it will be impossible for another 6 players to overtake him.

Really, with the number of points he has, it is unlikely he will finish outside the top 5, even if he doesn't play another event for the rest of the season.
(bolding mine). As a GS champion, Djoker only needs to be in top 20 to qualify.
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post #149 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-06-2008, 09:36 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

So, Rafa wins an epic Wimbledon final and, in so doing manages to extend his Race lead to a whopping 270 pts! That will take some catching up to, but it isn't absolutely impossible, as Nadal has yet to truly demonstrate his worth during the US Open Summer Series, and, again, is probably at a slight disadvantage, as far as the match-up goes, on an indoor hard court. Obviously, Djokovic shouldn't be forgotten, but it will take a huge effort from him to catch-up, and overtake, especially taking into account his questionable fitness (remember his late-2007 collapse?).

It's sure to be an exciting 2nd half of the season, not least because Rafa has a solid chance of at least touching #1 in the official rankings list, given how strong Federer's post-Wimbledon campaign was, last season.
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post #150 of 471 (permalink) Old 07-06-2008, 09:37 PM Thread Starter
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Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by LocoPorElTenis View Post
(bolding mine). As a GS champion, Djoker only needs to be in top 20 to qualify.
Yeah I know. I wasn't denying that in my original post...just saying that he is only about 98% guranteed to finish inside the top 8, at the moment. Doesn't really matter anyway as: (1) He will play Shanghai anyway, thanks to the rule you have mentioned; (2) As long as he doesn't get injured, he will easily secure enough points to finish top 3.
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