So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right? - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 05:22 PM Thread Starter
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So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

Winning the entire championship would put him above 6500 which, at this point, would be enough to pass Fed *if* Fed loses to Blake. If Fed makes it any further, even if Rafa wins, he still doesn't get it this week, right?

If I lose the first set, the match will be complicate, no?


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post #2 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 05:29 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

He'll get it in Dubai when Fed faces Murray in the 2nd round
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post #3 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 05:31 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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Originally Posted by Ackms421 View Post
Winning the entire championship would put him above 6500 which, at this point, would be enough to pass Fed *if* Fed loses to Blake. If Fed makes it any further, even if Rafa wins, he still doesn't get it this week, right?
I think that's right. But this is all a little premature, let Rafa make a GS semi on hard first!

And relying on Blake to beat Fed
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post #4 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 05:38 PM Thread Starter
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

Yes, I certainly am not saying that either of these events are the most-likely things to happen. I was just curious how far Fed could make it into the tournament with Rafa still having the mathematical shot at #1. Boy, that 10-8 in the fifth third-rounder sure did seem to be the one that would give Rafa #1. But, it wasn't to be, I guess...

BTW, Blake to beat Fed is certainly more unlikely than Rafa to win, although if Blake ever had a chance it is here. I haven't seen Fed look this vulnerable *ever*. And, if Rafa can get past Youzhny, he's got a 50/50 shot against whomever he sees across the net from him in the final. So, not the likeliest turn of events, but not impossible.

If I lose the first set, the match will be complicate, no?


My favorite Federer and Nadal quotes following their 2008 Wimbledon final:

“But right now, it’s not much of a how do you say? a feel-good thing.”
-Roger Federer
"In the last game, I didn't see nothing. The true, I wasn't see nothing, no?"
-Rafael Nadal
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post #5 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:07 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

At this point Nadal doesn't deserve to be n°1. It would be a farce if he managed to do it.

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post #6 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:12 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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At this point Nadal doesn't deserve to be n°1. It would be a farce if he managed to do it.
2 slams + 1 final + 4 masters + 2 masters finals...

Are you out of your mind?


If Fed gets knocked out in the semis and Nadal wins, He might be able to take it by winning Rotterdam if Fed doesn't play anything I think. I'd have to re-calculate.

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post #7 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:16 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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2 slams + 1 final + 4 masters + 3 masters finals...

Are you out of your mind?
This is all assuming he wins, no?

It's irrelevant anyways, Rafa won't reach no. 1 here, Fed isn't losing to Blake and either Fed or Nole will take the title here. Rafa should be content with SF or F pts.

BTW, where did you get 3 master finals??? Hamburg and Paris, yes, but what else?
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post #8 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:19 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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This is all assuming he wins, no?

It's irrelevant anyways, Rafa won't reach no. 1 here, Fed isn't losing to Blake and either Fed or Nole will take the title here. Rafa should be content with SF or F pts.

BTW, where did you get 3 master finals??? Hamburg and Paris, yes, but what else?
It was a typo, I changed it. Yes, that's assuming he wins (I have no doubt that he will not), but the person I was quoting implied that he wouldn't deserve it if he did win, which is just absurd.

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post #9 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:22 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

I think that novak beating fed would be a more likely scenario if fed would to lose before the final. As I am not the expert in the rankings, if Nadal wins the tournament and Fed loses in either the finals or semifinals what result for Rafa in Rotterdam (finals, winner?) would be necessary for Rafa to take over the number one ranking in February?
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post #10 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:22 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

If you strip all Nadal's clay points he will be NO3 in the world surpassed only by Nole. Isn't that impressive?
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post #11 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:51 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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If you strip all Nadal's clay points he will be NO3 in the world surpassed only by Nole. Isn't that impressive?
You're right. Clay court tennis is the surface equivalent of the WTA tour: inconsequential.

By the way, if Rafa makes the semis and loses, what has to happen in the next few weeks for him to take the top spot?

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post #12 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:54 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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I think that novak beating fed would be a more likely scenario if fed would to lose before the final. As I am not the expert in the rankings, if Nadal wins the tournament and Fed loses in either the finals or semifinals what result for Rafa in Rotterdam (finals, winner?) would be necessary for Rafa to take over the number one ranking in February?
If Fed's out in the semis and Rafa wins, a final in rotterdam would give him #1 by a whopping 20 points.

If Fed's out in the finals and Rafa wins, a win in rotterdam and a win over fed in dubai would give him #1. I think.

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post #13 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:57 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

Why Nadal is that close in points to Fed is beyond me. Fed won 3 slams, the ending tournament and did better overall imo and they are that close that one slam would make that much of a difference. Weird point system.
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post #14 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 06:57 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

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Originally Posted by hra87 View Post
If Fed's out in the semis and Rafa wins, a final in rotterdam would give him #1 by a whopping 20 points.

If Fed's out in the finals and Rafa wins, a win in rotterdam and a win over fed in dubai would give him #1. I think.
Anyways I highly doubt Rafa is worrying about this, in the end all that matters are the slams and I am sure Rafa would much rather have an AO title forever than world no. 1 for all of a whopping 2 weeks.
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post #15 of 35 (permalink) Old 01-21-2008, 07:03 PM
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Re: So Rafa to win and Blake to beat Fed is Rafa's last shot at #1 here, right?

what i saw on ESPN was...

rafa can only be number 1 after the AO if:

Federer loses 1st or 2nd round and rafa reaches the final
Federer loses anytime until the quarters and Rafa WINS the final.

I dont know how they calculated it but it seems to be that way.

RAFA-Roger-Isner-Baghdatis-Robredo-Delic-Wawrinka--Nalby-Gasquet-Roddick-Verdasco-Ancic-Murray-Tipsy-Ivanovic-Jankovic-Azarenka
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