4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years? - MensTennisForums.com
View Poll Results: How long will Federer dominate?
He will not pass Sampras, he is declining and at best next year is his last year as nr1 21 19.44%
He will equal Sampras record 33 30.56%
He will pass Sampras 43 39.81%
He will equal or pass Gonzalez 8 years of domination. 11 10.19%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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post #1 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:00 PM Thread Starter
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4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Well, what do you think? Will he match Sampras "impossible" record and maybe even pass it?

It would surely be the last record you could think of anyone passing, another scenario which is more unlikely is matching Pancho Gonalez 8 years of domiantion in the pro tour in the 50s. Personaly I see Federer dominating for exactly 4 more years, enought to equal Gonzalez domination, but some think he is already declining and if this would be the case he should only have 1-2 years left as nr1. Personaly I cant see the decline, my personal belief is that we may even not have seen his peak yet.

PS: I am talking about ending each year as nr1 and not if he can keep the consecutive weeks as nr1.

Last edited by marcRD; 10-28-2007 at 05:48 PM.
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post #2 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:16 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

FED`s peak was 2006
**
Roger should have finished 2003 as #1, then he`d be @ 5-years straight YE #1 already.
He`s going to focus more & more on slam wins only [you could already see that this year].
Expect FED to be less dominant overall but he`ll still win the majority of slams for the next 2 years!

My answer is: he`ll be lucky to equal it, but unlikely to break it.
Anyway>>> more importantly FED will blow Pete`s slam record away maybe even next year<
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post #3 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

His results were obviously better 2006 than 2007, which means it is so far his peak year. However, he has proven all talk about a decline not to be true, winning even more points than last year after Rome and 8 straight finals losing only to great opponents (Nadal on clay and redhot Djokovic and Nalbandian on hardcourt).
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post #4 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:23 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

No more years - 30%
Reach 5 years - 50%
Equal the record - 12.5%
Beat the record - 5%
8 or more years - 2.5%

Champions deserve whatever they win playing within the laws of the game
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post #5 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

please note that roger's ranking is consecutive he's the record holder with connors second///roger can have a stinker of a season,as sampras did winning 1 or 2 slams and still walk away with the year ending no#1 as Sampras had done....so yeah he can have 6 year ending's no 1
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post #6 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

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post #7 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:33 PM Thread Starter
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Quote:
Originally Posted by stebs View Post
No more years - 30%
Reach 5 years - 50%
Equal the record - 12.5%
Beat the record - 5%
8 or more years - 2.5%
That doesnt make much sense to me as Federers gap down to nr2 is big and Nadal has proven to have limitations when it comes to gaining points away from the clay season. If Federer ever would feel threatened he could play some more minor tournaments to secure his nr1 spot, Sampras was nr1 with a really small gap down to the nr2 and always found a way to end nr1, Federer is still dominating this year as Sampras never did even during his best years, he is nowhere close to losing his spot anytime soon, certanly not next year, if the gap down to nr2 ould be around 500-1000 then your odds would be correct.
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post #8 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:37 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

yeh maybe he wont spend over 6 years consecutive as no.1 but I definitely think he can finish YE #1 like sampras did with good finishes!

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post #9 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:41 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CmonAussie View Post
Roger should have finished 2003 as #1, then he`d be @ 5-years straight YE #1 already.
I find this hard to back up, since Roddick had a stellar year in 2003 (outside of the clay season ). Andy performed better overall than Roger in the slams; Andy also won 2 TMS titles, while Federer won zero. Federer's performance at the final Masters Cup was out of this world, and there's no question he was the best in the world that week -- but Roddick outperformed him earlier in the year.

As for the question at hand, I certainly believe Federer could pull off 2 or 3 more years ending as No. 1. But will he be able to continue this streak of consecutive weeks at No. 1? (one of his most astonishing accomplishments, imo)

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post #10 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Quote:
Originally Posted by stebs View Post
No more years - 30%
Reach 5 years - 50%
Equal the record - 12.5%
Beat the record - 5%
8 or more years - 2.5%
Interesting.

No more years - 10%
Reach 5 years - 30%
Equal the record - 40%
Beat the record - 15%
8 or more years - 5%
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post #11 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Too bad his only loss to Robo Rod costed him the #1 in 2003. If he had finished #1 in 2003 he would have had a real chance of surpassing Sampras' record of 6 straight years ending #1. I don't see Fed finishing #1 in 2010. I'm not even sure he'll tie the record. IMO next year will be his last as #1.
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post #12 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Most will think this is too optimistic, but I really am trying to look beyond what would be normal with Roger, because his domination during his peak has been totaly abnormal and so I would think his domination after his peak will still be good enought (winning 1-2 slams/year) to end nr1.

No more years 7%
Reach 5 years 10%
Equal the record 20%
Beat the record - 20%
8 years - 25%
9 years - 12%
10 or more years -6%

Ok, this may sound absurd to most of you, but whoever would predict that Federer would win 11 slams between 2004-2007 would surely sound like a madman to you, right? Why would you still feel like predicting Federers future like his domination was at Sampras or Lendls level?

I tell you this, Federer right now is playing much better tennis than Sampras was playing at Federers age or even during his best year (94). So if he declines like Sampras, he would still prob equal Sampras record. On the other hand, Sampras looked much older on the court when he was the same age as Federer, I personaly think that Federer will be aging wont be as hard on his body like Sampras.

Last edited by marcRD; 10-28-2007 at 06:04 PM.
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post #13 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 05:54 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

the answer you are searching for is YES
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post #14 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 06:08 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

This is one of the most overrated records ever, I always failed to understand what is so special about year-end #1. This is really no different than any other week as #1, the record that matters imo is # of weeks as #1 rated player, barring injuries Roger has very good chances of making that.

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post #15 of 67 (permalink) Old 10-28-2007, 06:32 PM
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Re: 4 years and running as nr1, will he beat Sampras´ 6 years?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Merton View Post
This is one of the most overrated records ever, I always failed to understand what is so special about year-end #1. This is really no different than any other week as #1, the record that matters imo is # of weeks as #1 rated player, barring injuries Roger has very good chances of making that.
yep
who cares who end as no. 1?

Total Weeks at number 1
1. Pete Sampras 286
2. Ivan Lendl 270
3. Jimmy Connors 268
4. Roger Federer 196

and

Consecutive Weeks at number 1
1. Roger Federer 196
2. Jimmy Connors 160
3. Ivan Lendl 157
4. Pete Sampras 102

are perhaps "important"

everybody knows that the GS record is THE Tennis record
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