Now that Robredo and Haas are out of their respective tournaments this week and James Blake, Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych needing to make at least the QF stage to accumulate aymore Race points it now looks increasingly likely that Murray will qualify 8th for Shanghai.
Murray's 5th best is only 5 points so by winning St.Petersberg (considering his draw and recent Madrid form will be more than likely) his Race points will go up to 329. Fortunately he should be seeded in Paris and if he makes a good run there, while other faulter early, he could very well be heading over to Shanghai after Paris.
BTW, Has any player ever qualified for the T.M.C. despite missing two Grand Slams?
BTW, i think you`ve done your maths incorrectly
if Murray wins St.Petersberg [worth 35pts] he`ll have 316 race points, making him equal 13th!!
Basically Murray needs to win this week & make the final of Paris AMS to qualify for TMC