Fat chance, Federer only loses for a variety of reasons, and none of them are due to him being outplayed.
Nice qualification of chance here.
Fat Dave knows how to play him, has a game style that can weather the offense and produce about as good or better defense as Federer. I think here on, it is going to be a tossup who wins. His game style certainly is not one which will always give him the edge like Nadal's does.
I would be happy to see Fit Dave back in the mix, you just don't know what you are going to get with him and Safin.
Whoever watched the match today can say without such a bother about it that the player who imposed his game, won. Federer had chances but could not take them, not by bad luck or bad day. He seemed to get impatient and seemed to be distracted in the third, maybe about the break chance back at 4-5 in the 2nd.