Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 02:42 PM Thread Starter
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Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Hello everyone

Here's some mathematics regarding the Year End No. 1 ranking.

If you like numbers, here's a load of them for you to digest.

If you don't like numbers, there's an overall conclusion (in text!) at the end of this message.

Hope you enjoy the last 2 months of the season!

==================================

Notes:

1. The Race points at the end of the year is exactly one-fifth of the Entry points for the majority of the top 20, since these players do not play Challengers or Futures.
Please do not crow about the non-usage of Entry points.

2. Race points are used for ease of calculation as no subtraction of defended points is needed - only addition is needed


Year End Schedules


According to various sources, this is the schedule of the top 3.

Federer - both AMS, TMC and Tokyo & Basel.

Nadal - both AMS, TMC and Bangkok

Djokovic- both AMS, TMC and Bangkok & Vienna


Possible points from now until end of year


Each player's performance is a very rough estimate based on how they have performed in the past and their present form.

This is not a prediction of all the detailed results for each tournament, but allows visualisation of the total points for each player, given the possible type of results.







Possible Scenario 1
It is very possible that Federer wins Tokyo, Basel and one AMS, say Paris, and doesn't play the other AMS.
It's also very possible that Nadal plays very well, and he wins Bangkok, one TMS (say Madrid) and is a finalist in Paris AMS

Based on this scenario, the points prior to TMC:

(Note that TMC has a maximum of 150 points)

Based on this, Federer confirms the year end No. 1 position even before the TMC!


Possible Scenario 2
Nadal plays extremely well and an average so-so Federer shows up for two months. Federer makes a couple of finals and semi-finals but doesn't win a title.

Federer still gets to the No 1 spot by year end...



Possible Scenario 3
Nadal plays very well and a sub-par Federer shows up for two months

Nadal gets to No. 1



Conclusions

1. If Federer wins any one AMS and both optionals, he will be No. 1 regardless of the TMC and regardless of how well Nadal does. This result will give Federer a lead of 165 from Nadal's possible maximum, prior to the TMC.

2. Even if Federer puts in an average performance in these two months (by his standards), he will be the No.1 at the end of the year.

3. Nadal has chances to end the year as No. 1. However he must win practically everything and hope that Federer is below average or worse.

4. Djokovic has a very slim chance of ending the year as No. 1. However, he must win everything and then hope that Federer has a complete meltdown and Nadal plays poorly.

5. Djokivic has a chance of taking over as the year-end No. 2. He must win a lot of matches (at least getting to the finals or winning the AMS and TMC tournaments) and also hope that Nadal is below average.

6. As of today, there is still a mathematical possibility of Federer ending the year as No. 3! That would require Djokovic winning both AMS tournaments and the TMC, Nadal finishing as runner up in the AMS and TMC tournaments, and Federer playing very poorly.
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post #2 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 02:49 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Interesting, thanks for crunching all those number!

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post #3 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:02 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Quote:
Originally Posted by crouching View Post
Hello everyone

Here's some mathematics regarding the Year End No. 1 ranking.

If you like numbers, here's a load of them for you to digest.

If you don't like numbers, there's an overall conclusion (in text!) at the end of this message.

Hope you enjoy the last 2 months of the season!

==================================

Notes:

1. The Race points at the end of the year is exactly one-fifth of the Entry points for the majority of the top 20, since these players do not play Challengers or Futures.
Please do not crow about the non-usage of Entry points.

2. Race points are used for ease of calculation as no subtraction of defended points is needed - only addition is needed


Year End Schedules


According to various sources, this is the schedule of the top 3.

Federer - both AMS, TMC and Tokyo & Basel.

Nadal - both AMS, TMC and Bangkok

Djokovic- both AMS, TMC and Bangkok & Vienna


Possible points from now until end of year


Each player's performance is a very rough estimate based on how they have performed in the past and their present form.

This is not a prediction of all the detailed results for each tournament, but allows visualisation of the total points for each player, given the possible type of results.







Possible Scenario 1
It is very possible that Federer wins Tokyo, Basel and one AMS, say Paris, and doesn't play the other AMS.
It's also very possible that Nadal plays very well, and he wins Bangkok, one TMS (say Madrid) and is a finalist in Paris AMS

Based on this scenario, the points prior to TMC:

(Note that TMC has a maximum of 150 points)

Based on this, Federer confirms the year end No. 1 position even before the TMC!


Possible Scenario 2
Nadal plays extremely well and an average so-so Federer shows up for two months. Federer makes a couple of finals and semi-finals but doesn't win a title.

Federer still gets to the No 1 spot by year end...



Possible Scenario 3
Nadal plays very well and a sub-par Federer shows up for two months

Nadal gets to No. 1



Conclusions

1. If Federer wins any one AMS and both optionals, he will be No. 1 regardless of the TMC and regardless of how well Nadal does. This result will give Federer a lead of 165 from Nadal's possible maximum, prior to the TMC.

2. Even if Federer puts in an average performance in these two months (by his standards), he will be the No.1 at the end of the year.

3. Nadal has chances to end the year as No. 1. However he must win practically everything and hope that Federer is below average or worse.

4. Djokovic has a very slim chance of ending the year as No. 1. However, he must win everything and then hope that Federer has a complete meltdown and Nadal plays poorly.

5. Djokivic has a chance of taking over as the year-end No. 2. He must win a lot of matches (at least getting to the finals or winning the AMS and TMC tournaments) and also hope that Nadal is below average.

6. As of today, there is still a mathematical possibility of Federer ending the year as No. 3! That would require Djokovic winning both AMS tournaments and the TMC, Nadal finishing as runner up in the AMS and TMC tournaments, and Federer playing very poorly.



Excellent summary ~~ but the fact is everyone knows FED is #1 for 2007 [he won 3-Slams & that`s all that matters in the end]
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post #4 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:04 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Thanks for the conclusion

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post #5 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:21 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Thanks for the numbers.

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post #6 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:26 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

i love people who get so deeply involved.
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post #7 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Excellent, thank you.

Could you do something for No.2 v/s No.3? Or is it all sewn up for the year now?
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post #8 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:30 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

This was so interesting!.. Thanks for all the info!

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post #9 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:31 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Amazing job. Thanks!
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post #10 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:33 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Thanks for the numbers



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post #11 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 03:54 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Wow, that was great. Thank you!!

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post #12 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 04:03 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Thank you for a great effort
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post #13 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 04:06 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

It was great of you to take the time to do this
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post #14 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 04:11 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Thanks for the info . A good thread involving JesusFed, Nadal and Nole is hard to find these days

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post #15 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-12-2007, 04:14 PM
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Re: Federer or Nadal - year end No. 1 - with calculations

Great work! Love this kind of stuff.
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