Federer is now declining and I can prove it.... - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 05:27 AM Thread Starter
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Exclamation Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

I believe Federer is now well and truly behind his peak. I plotted a running average of winning percentage in all his ATP matches (excluding challengers and DC).

[IMG]preyent.jpg[/IMG]

If you look beyond peaks and troughs, there is a trend showing declining his superiority; slowly but clearly. It looks like he peaked between US Open and AO Open 2007. So, Fed fans dont whine and whinge about his slump. Things will only get worse !!!
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post #2 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 05:46 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

What does that prove? You would get a similar graph (and reached the same conclusion) drawing Roger's ranking points over the last 4 years or so. If that methodology worked, everybody would be rich trading stocks.

It might or it might not be true but calling Roger's peak, sure, if you call it every day eventually it will turn out to be correct.

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post #3 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 06:02 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Whoa thanks for that info, now I even feel better about Federers chances in the future, looking at how even in decline, he is still good enough to win at least 2 slams a year.

Poor Djokovic and Rafa! they are sure the opposite of federer, they are on the way up! yet they still managed to get first round owned at cincinati?

I'll take Federers decline over their success any day of the year
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post #4 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 06:13 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Running average of how many matches?

I am confused by "winning percentages"?
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post #5 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 06:19 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

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Running average of how many matches?

I am confused by "winning percentages"?
Same here. What is this "winning percentage"?
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post #6 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 06:38 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Winning percentage is percentage of points won by Federer in a match. For example Federer won Wimbledon in 2005 winning matches over: Bognanovitch 61% points in a match, Falla 68% , Johansson 56%, Karlovic 55%, Lleyton 54%, Grosjean 56% and Roddick winning 52%. Of course , this would be highly fluctuating if taken match by match, therefore I used running average of 20 matches. There appears to be peaks when Fed was playing really well so it appears to be working and I stuck with it.
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post #7 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 07:13 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Then winning percentage as you call it would truly depend on an element of luck - the draws. Whom he plays is determined by the draw, and would affect how many points he wins.

Even if your calculations were reliable and valid, it is still not fair to say it is just a patch of not playing his very best, which we are likely to see again soon.

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post #8 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 07:24 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

ae_wowww, I dont think so. Taking running average of twenty matches should smooth any influences of easy draws out. When you look on the graph you can see peaks when Fed was performing at his best, on the other hand you wont see there any peaks for AO Open 2006, even though the draw was not the hardest. Point I am making is that if you are supremely confident you beat little guys much easier and that will carry on to other matches. Mind you, nothing lasts forever, and during his slump during this spring he had worst percentage since 2002. Of course I dont expect him drop off his perch or roll over tommorrow.
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post #9 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 07:51 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....



Wow...people are desperate for fed to go down..they behave as if they have some personal grudge against roger....god bless them all.....

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post #10 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 08:22 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

This Federer is the suck. Retire already!
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post #11 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 08:25 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Federer hasn't played well since 2003, no surprise really.
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post #12 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 08:32 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Unlike others, I think these stats are pretty reliable. Averaging over 20 matches does smooth things out, and % of points won is probably the best indication of a player's level.

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post #13 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 08:46 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

That's a good trend to watch out for. However I am not sure if it's conclusive yet. As per your graph, he hit a major slump in mid-2006, but then recovered to new heights later on. Who knows he may repeat the pattern this year. Which is why, I won't read much into the graph. But if we don't see any recovery as per your graph by the end of the year, then we definitely have something to talk about.
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post #14 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 08:58 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

It's a plausible statistics. Interesting.
Umm...but nobody is able to predict the future 100%.
For example, everybody said that he began to fall when he got "just" 2 Grand Slams in 2005. But you see what...2006 he was flying again.

If Fed win US Open 07, i won't say he is getting worse, but "he is being smarter to play less matches to keep away from injured. He looks like getting worse because he played just a few matches compared with last season.
AO open was his first match in 2007 (passed Doha).
Wimbledon was his first grass match in 2007 (passed Halle).

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post #15 of 62 (permalink) Old 08-26-2007, 10:29 AM
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Re: Federer is now declining and I can prove it....

Federer today isn't the Federer of this time last year, for sure. It's not surprising as maintaining the kind of utter dominance he had last year would be close to superhuman. And despite what some would have us believe, he isn't superhuman.

Yet even a slightly diminished Federer has managed to make four Masters finals, winning two of them, and has so far made all three Slam finals and won two of those. So you know, not too shabby. I'm not sure I'd be terribly worried if I were a Federer fan.

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