Agreed that we don't have an obvious #2 guy ... and the Italian doubles team probably has the edge here (more because Nestor is having a lackluster year & may be showing his age rather than a problem with Vasek). Basically the situation is Milos should win his 2 singles matches pretty easily, and Italy should have the edge in the other 3; so we figure we only need to win 1 of the 3 where Italy has the advantage. So, the reason I actually agree with Canada's choice of Dancy over Levine is that Frank's peak game is better (his demolition of Granollers last tie is an example) but he isn't consistent. But we aren't looking for consistency - just one win.
Bottom line, Levine probably has higher probability of playing 2 good matches than Frank .... but he would still probably lose both; where Frank sometimes plays at level where he wins no matter how good Italian singles guys are playing. We need to take that chance.
Raonic actually LOST to Fognini in an exhibition event this year in straight sets. Yes, it was an exhibition but still. I think Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini are very good players, people think because they are Italian they are clay courters BUT they are not. Seppi and Fognini are solid on hardcourts too! Seppi reached the fourth round of the Australian Open and he reached the fourth round of the Miami Masters and he's top 20.
Fognini and Bolleri are BETTER I believe at doubles than Nestor that's something I agree with. I think Nestor is too old now he's 40 and he isn't getting any younger. Against, Spain Nestor got so tired his age has definitely caught up with him.
I hope your right about Frank Dancevic BUT I am worried I wish Canada had a number two guy. Milos can't win this tie all by himself.