If Stan wins, does the 32 pick win?
Yes because if Wawrinka wins you'll be tied in the number of winners and number of SR's. As the Murray - Wawrinka is the first match, then you win the shoot-out because both players picked the loser (Murray) but you gave more sets to the winner than your opponent.
Unless Wawrinka retires the players who picked Murray 3-2 are now in the final
Let's see if this doesn't happen.