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post #572 of (permalink) Old 06-29-2013, 03:29 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Originally Posted by VamosRafaNadal View Post
Jeremy Chardy - Jan-Lennard Struff
Pick: Jan-Lennard Struff
Odd: 2.80
Stake: 1/10 (11,192.97*0,1*0,1... 112 credits)

I think that in this match Chardy is too favourite and Struff is too underdog. It should be more equal in my opinion, something like odd of 0,55 on Chardy and 2 on Struff. Struff has played well in the last few weeks and he is a qualifier in Wimbledon so he has played more matches and more time than Chardy on Wimbledon courts. The Frenchman has a very aggresive game that makes him an unconsistent player capable of the best and the worst. Chardy is the favourite, this is clear, but Struff can make a good performance so it worth the credits to bet on him with low stake.
Struff did a goot much but wasn't enough. Anyway, I am happy with my bet because definitely Struff wasn't hammered or defeated in straight sets as the odds suggested.

Originally Posted by VamosRafaNadal View Post
Today a day with good matches and maybe some upsets but I don't see anything clear. Three interesting matches where I won't bet:

Kubot can make the things difficult to Paire, the frenchman has not played well on grass. However, the H2H is 4-0 for Paire (all the four matches played in 2012 and 2013, so they are recent) and Benoit aims to reach the second week of a Grand Slam. He has a promising career. Kubot's play fits more with grass than Paire's game but I think it won't be enough.

From the other side, I see Janowicz favourite against Almagro but I think that it is a risky match too. Janowicz is capable of the best and the worst. His game on grass is better than Almagro's game. In serves I don't see any difference, both are great servers, but in rallies I think that Almagro likes more the high bounce and Janowicz is more get used to this conditions. But I don't feel confortable betting for Janowicz, he is not a mind matured tennis player today.

I think that bookies overrate Stakhovsky. His defeat over Federer was super but if the match against Melzer happened in 1st round probably Melzer would have been the favourite. Stakhovsky played against Federer with inspiration more than a solid gameplay. The serve and volley strategy is very effective if you do it in the proper way but is not as consistent as a baseline play for example. But I don't feel confortable betting on Melzer because Jurgen is playing very bad these days, losing almost all the matches in the clay court season and almost losing against Ghedin in Halle. He won two good matches in Wimbledon but in my opinion Melzer is not a reliable player.

But if you want to bet on these matches I recommend Kubot, Janowicz and/or Melzer. My bet today will be:

Ernests Gulbis - Fernando Verdasco
Pick: Fernando Verdasco
Odd: 1.29
Stake: 2'75/10 (11,813.66*0,1*0,275... 325 credits)

Gulbis is playing well in 2013 but I think that it is a little bit overrated on this match. Despite the fact that he is an offensive baseliner with very impressive shots (ball bashing very good if he is on his peak), grass doesn't fit with his game. It can be shocking because grass is a fast surface, but the problem is the bounce and the fast that you have to hit the ball. The Gulbis forehand shot requires time to be executed properly. It can be better on courts with high bounce, but we have seen lot of errors from him in all the grass court season. Picking on Verdasco can be very risky if we look at how he started the 2013 season, but lately he is playing widely better than before. He is peaking in this important part of the season and in Grand Slams he almost always gets a good result and plays very solid. Definitely Nando likes the best of 5 matches. He changed his racket and lately he is finding consistency in his game. He beat Malisse and Benneteau in Wimbledon, two matches where Fernando was the underdog. In addition he had a tight match with Feliciano in Eastbourne, which is a great thing despite the fact that he lost seeing how good Feliciano is playing on grass this year. Maybe if Gulbis is on the zone he can be definitely more powerful than Verdasco, but I think that in average the match is tight and it will be tough for both players. Fernando is a headcase but Gulbis when he is down in the scoreline sometimes gets crazy. The Latvian has a lot of quality but at this moment it is not reliable, and Fernando has more experience in this kind of Grand Slam matches. I am not saying that Verdasco is the favourite but his odd is got to try and bet on him.
All my 3 pronostics of the 3 matches where I didn't bet were right, a shame that I didn't bet but theyre were risky IMO Well done Verdasco, as I said he peaks in Grand Slams and is more all-round player than Gulbis, who is a little bit overrated these days and whose shots are not as effective as bookies thing on grass despite the fact that he is a definitely a more aggresive player than Fernando.
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