Rogers Cup site:
Article from a Toronto newspaper:
Federer-Nadal unlikely to meet in Rogers Cup final
Globe and Mail Update Published on Friday, Jul. 30, 2010 12:41AM EDT
After all these years – five to be exact – it’s just a natural reflex to think that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will only play in the final of any tournament they enter.
In fact, from July 25, 2005, until the ATP rankings that came out last Monday, there have only been a total of 23 weeks when Federer and Nadal were not No. 1 and No. 2 or vice-versa.
Four of those weeks were last August/September when Nadal slipped to No. 3, and then there were another 15 weeks from February to May this year when he dropped to either No. 3 or No. 4.
Since his French Open triumph on June 6, Nadal has been firmly ensconced at No. 1 while Federer, following his quarter-final ouster at Wimbledon, has now dropped to No. 3 behind Nadal and Novak Djokovic for the past four weeks.
That may be significant for the Rogers Cup in Toronto, with main-draw action starting on August 9, because Nadal will be seeded No. 1 followed by Djokovic at No. 2, Federer at No. 3 and Andy Murray at No. 4. After the two top seeds are placed at the top and bottom of the draw, seeds No. 3 and No. 4 are drawn to determine who goes in the top half and who goes in the bottom half. That means there’s a 50-per-cent chance Federer will come out in the top half and potentially have to play Nadal in the semi-finals.
Over the past five years, Federer and Nadal have only entered four tournaments when they weren’t the two top seeds. Those were the 2009 U.S. Open as well as Indian Wells, Miami and Rome this year. And only in Rome did Nadal, then No. 3, come out in Federer’s half of the draw. It turned out not to be of little consequence because Federer, after a bye, was upset in the second round by Ernests Gulbis.
The fateful random placement of the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds for this year’s Rogers Cup will occur up the CN Tower in Toronto at 4 p.m. next Friday, with Nadal present for the official draw ceremony.
Both he and Federer will be playing their first tournament since Wimbledon and should be ready and eager, though maybe not quite at peak form because of a lack of tournament play.
They have never faced each other at the Rogers Cup in the five years when they have both been entered, and each of them have won the title twice – Federer in 2004 (Andy Roddick) and 2006 (Richard Gasquet) in Toronto, and Nadal in 2005 (Andre Agassi) in Montreal and 2008 (Nicolas Kiefer) in Toronto.
If they were both in the same half of the draw this year, and if form prevailed and they reached the semi-final, chances are it would be the featured semi-final in the evening on Saturday August 14.
Ideally, fans would probably prefer to see them in the championship match on Sunday the 15th, but an evening semi-final on Saturday would also have the added cachet of the electricity and sense of occasion that goes with tennis played under the lights, just like at the U.S. Open.
The Federer and Nadal head-to-head is a fairly lopsided 14-7 for Nadal, but on hard courts things get much more competitive. They are 3-3.
With Federer turning 29 on August 8, and with the Olympics in London on grass as a potential complicating factor for the Toronto event in the summer of 2012, this year could conceivably be the last opportunity fans will have to see a Federer-Nadal match-up in Toronto.
What's your MIT pick?
I'm going with win for now.