France is beatable. They've also been inconsistent in DC lately. It could be easy, it could be hard, it could be a toss up.
I still think Raonic will take both of his rubbers. Pospisil will depend on a lot of things, form, opponent and surface.
The big question for me is Nestor still going to be playing?
Make no mistake, this draw will be very difficult indeed, I would be more inclined to agree with you about Milos and overall if this tie were held in Canada, but since it's in France, it's likely to be on clay, which means that if Milos plays Gasquet and/or Tsonga, the chances of him winning both aren't so good and well we all know how poor Vasek is on clay.