yes I could say that, but rather because Spain and Argentina may lose this week-end, and Fed doesn't play for Switzerland (a big mistake he will probably regret for long).
Roger can't win the DC alone, and Wawrinka's performances in DC have been mixed, to put it mildly. His great match in Melbourne should not be taken as a reference.
If France is the lucky team this year as Czech Republic was last year, I can already foresee the French media praising Clément whereas it would only be that they had the luck this year and not previous years
As always, you can only beat the team on the other side
. Of course there is some luck involved, with playing at home, chosing the surface, and having your best guys aavailable, but Forget had his chance in Belgrade and he messed it up.
As for a Spanish first round defeat, I only believe it when I see it. Agentina is a more likely candidate for a loss, if the Germans can get it together which looks well possible on paper, but still has to be done in reality.