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post #106 of (permalink) Old 01-29-2013, 12:25 AM
country flag Mark Lenders
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Re: David Ferrer is the new World #4 !

Originally Posted by BauerAlmeida View Post
Yes. Berdych did beat Nole at Wimbledon, but apart from that he was a disaster most of the matches they played and was routined too. That's the only time he beat him.

Ferrer doesn't do much better, but he caused him some trouble in the past on clay. Wawrinka played a fantastic match, but he was routined too most of his matches against Nole. Actually few people outisde the top 4 won't be routined by Djokovic (Delpo, Tsonga and not much else really).

It's the current courts's fault we don't have upsets and we have the same guys in the SF each time. Even if the #4 was someone else, he'd be routined too probably. Berdych can upset Fed/Murray but gets ruotined by Djokovic/Nadal. Tsonga or Del Potro can cause an upset, but any guy outside the TOP 10 would be rotuined too (the other guys in the top 10 too)
I'm not saying other players can't be routined, they definitely can especially against Djokovic on a slow hardcourt. But there's not the same inevitability there is in Ferrer's case; even if Ferrer plays to the very best of his abilities he's not going to trouble Nole at all ever deep in a Slam when Nole is obviously focused and playing well. The same cannot be said about Berdych: he can reach heights with his game where he can take down Nole (see W 2010) and the other top players even though he will lose most of the time. Even if playing badly/off form, he always has a shot at taking a set by stringing a few games of huge serving and hitting as he did in AO this year despite being clearly outplayed.

That's the whole point: yes, we know Wawrinka folds meekly most of the times he faces a top player, but he also has a very high peak which adds at least some degree of uncertainty to the match. Is there any doubt that if Ferrer faces Djokovic/Federer at Roland Garros SF he will be easily blown off the court, is there any gear in his game he can reach to avoid this inevitable outcome? No. Speaking of Tipsarevic, remember his match with Nole at USO 2012, it was incredible before Tipsy got injured, a sort of resistance Ferrer will never be able to offer to the top 2 this year if he lives up to his seeding because he doesn't have the tools to do so even if he redlines his game.

MTF games titles:

Suicide Tennis (5): Wimbledon 2014, World Tour Finals 2015, Madrid 2015, Kuala Lumpur 2014 and Metz 2015 - 1 Slam, 1 WTF, 1 Masters 1000, 2 ATP 250; 2 finals lost

Fill-in-the-Draw (5): US Open 2014, Rotterdam 2013, Geneva 2015, Sydney 2016 and Buenos Aires 2016 - 1 Slam, 1 ATP 500 and 3 ATP 250

Tennis Tipping (3): Veneza and Todi 2014 (with vn01), Knoxville 2015 (with Redkop) - 3 challengers; 7 finals lost
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