Yeah, but other guys will also gain points. There are so many challenger weeks to come...
He probably won't drop though, but I'd prefer him to play 1 or 2 more challengers so he gets direct entry into 250s next season.
He has played many matches over the last few months and I believe that he is training harder than he used to. He should be careful with his body. So many players do too much and then have injuries that sideline them for months. I prefer that he is fit for the Australian Open and not sitting at home
Last years tournaments gave more points than the tournaments for this year, so there will be more points being deducted from players than added. Since Thiemo has no points to defend, he should normally go up in ranking. Also, the players just ahead of Thiemo in the ranking have only a few points more, while the players behind him have a lot less points, so Thiemo has way more chance to rise than to fall. He is especially unlikely to fall more than 3 places.
- Rajeev Ram is three points ahead, but will lose 50 points. He needs a very good result to stay above Thiemo.
- Denis Istomin is 22 points ahead, but will lose 36 points. He lost his first match in the Astana challenger, so no points for him. He will need another 23 points to stay above Thiemo.
- Teimuraz Gabashvili is 23 points down on Thiemo (but still in 101st place!) and his worst tourney that counts for the ranking is 20 points, so he needs 23+20=43 points in a single tournament to tie Thiemo.
- Chris Guccione is 28 points down (103st place) and will lose 128 points, so he will not get above Thiemo.
- Taylor Dent is 31 points down (104th place) and will lose 28 points, so he needs 59 points to match Thiemo.
In other words, for Thiemo to lose places, several of the people just ahead of him will need to earn points. Of the players behind him, most will need big points to move ahead of Thiemo. It's extremely unlikely that no player will drop below Thiemo and more than 3 players will move ahead of him.
There are no challengers in December and only three big (larger than $50k) challengers left in November. Those three are in Europe, while there are no more small ATP tournaments, so they will have fairly strong fields (with several top-70 or even top-50 players). It will be difficult for many players around places 100 to earn big points (one or two might do so, but not 5 or 6).