Bookies getting it right is not the same as bookies telling it like it is. The try to make the book. If they know a large contingent of fans is going to bet on one particular player to win come hell or high water, the odds for this player will drop no matter how unlikely they think he is to win.
And I read how they made their bets, it was far from pure science.
I agree that generally they are quite fair, but it's not science either.