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post #22 of (permalink) Old 12-28-2012, 11:05 AM
country flag Li Ching Yuen
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Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Originally Posted by Litotes View Post
Bookies getting it right is not the same as bookies telling it like it is. The try to make the book. If they know a large contingent of fans is going to bet on one particular player to win come hell or high water, the odds for this player will drop no matter how unlikely they think he is to win.
And when do fans do that? When a player is showing such form that it's pretty predictable that he has the most chances to win a tournament. Remember that a lot of betters are not necessarily blind fanboys, when it comes to money a lot of people harness a surprising amount of objectivity.

All this bottled up in fewer words is: at the end of the day what bookies are laying on the table is the reality as it can be best processed at a moment in time. In rare, rare occasions have I seen bookmakers making gifts and that won't change anytime soon.

When I look at these odds I see the reality of how things might turn out come the end of January, at the time of this post and seeing how a couple of warm-up events rarely do change that I have no reason to not follow that idea.
You can make money out of sports betting by seeing enough of the unpredictable right and meshing that with bland, obvious odds like the one in the OP. Sometimes the market might fluctuate a bit and offer some openings but let's not kid ourselves those are all just flashes in the pan.
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