Not saying he will win, but Rafa is HUGELY underrated in the bookies. If you put 10 dolars in him, you wont lose that match and you may even win a lot, cause it wouldnt be THAT much of a shocker (not 1/11, thats for sure) if he wins the whole thing...
Nadal underrated? I don't see that. Are you really expecting him to be at his best immediately
after a six-month inactive period? And even at his best this is a tough tournament to win for him. He's won it once in eight tries, after all, it's not the RG we're talking about.