Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Lisbon, Portugal
Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?
It's important to understand that the caliber of opponent they will face in QF is completely different.
Nadal will be drawn either with a complete non factor like Ferrer, Berdych - great player, but Nadal is a nightmare matchup for him -, or Tsonga - could potentially beat Nadal, but is the most erratic player in the top 10 and could simply flame out early or throw in a shocking performance, especially considering late 2012 form. In other words, unless he gets Delpo in his quarter, Nadal is a safe bet to be in the semis.
Delpo on the other hand could get Djokovic, Murray or Federer (75% chance actually), the three main favorite for the event, and he'd be the underdog against all of them, especially Nole. That is why Nadal's odds are soundly better - will be interesting to see whether/how they shift if Nadal and JMDP are drawn in the same quarter.