None of them is likely to beat a top 4 player in the QF, but Tipsy can beat Ferrer, Berdych or even Tsonga in R4 to put himself in a position to try.
Almagro has no chance anywhere against any of Del Potro, Tsonga, Berdych or Ferrer. Even Tsonga on clay owns him H2H because Almagro is simply incapable of beating top players. Tipsy, on the other hand, always has a decent chance of reaching QF unless he draws Del Potro in R4.
I agree that Tipsy is closer, but not for the same reasons. They both have game and can be dangerous when playing good. But even though Janko is less of a choker, reaching SF without a top 8 seed is pretty impossible. The big difference IMO is that he is #9, and if a top 8 member is injured (which isn't so unlikely from my experience), it makes his chances much much better.