Failo V. is still leagues ahead of everyone else IMO. He will defend it, I'm fairly sure.
The poster who wins is usually the person that is prominent around the time of voting. People have short memories and forget the clownery from the beginning of the year. There's also the fact that he's been banned for the majority of the year.
But yeah, if he has another meltdown like last year he will probably emerge victorious.
For me, Lenders' has been a way bigger clown this year. It's gotten to the point where I think he is actually starting to believe the drivel that he spews on a consistent basis. Just another clown but with good grammar.