You can never count Fed out as the same way as you can never count Fed in (it's kinda weird, but it's true).
Federer won Indian Wells when nobody gave 2 cents for him, even defeating Nadal in an outdoor HC, everyone was like WHAAAAAT?.
But then, he also lost the Halle final in his best surface vs Haas.
I still think Andy will win this tournament, he has something in Shanghai we don't understand.
No, I don't think what some Muzzatardz say as "Murray's Shanghai is as Rafa's Montecarlo", no way, but still, he's the favorite for me.
I think Roger will win Basel, if he plays Paris he'll be the favorite, and he'd probably be the favorite for the WTF also, but that doesn't mean he'd win it, for the same reason I said before.
I don't think Murray will win it. I favour Fed to get to the final. Murray had only 1 good/decent opponent with solid ground game since USO - Wawrinka in Tokyo. He beat Karlovic (servebot - I love Karlo, but ...), Lacko (who is in very bad form), lost to Raonic (server with weak ground game), beat Dolgo (with his unorthodox style and clowny game) and now will face Stepanek (talk about baseline game...). So I if Fed plays even close to his level, I think he'll win. And last, but not least, don't forget that Murray's game in the USO was nothing that great. Sure, he deserved his title, but his was on a verge of losing to Lopez, Cilic and Djokovic (to some extent) also...