Agreed. It's difficult to see him not playing. He's defending 1000 points.
Federer only defends 90 and Nadal 10 there.
If Federer does better than Djokovic in the Olympics, I would say he is a lock to skip Toronto and focus on Cincinnati and the US Open.
I doubt he is thinking of points and defending a title right now.He surely doesn`t want to make a mistake like last year playing Davis Cup after Us Open without any preparation and getting himself injured.
The decision if he will play will probably be made Sunday or Monday.If he has to play 5 sets and then travel to Serbia to present a medal it will be tough to regroup and with the travel and fast surface change it can easily result in an injury