He is not scheduled to play in Monte-Carlo this year. His point loss there will be minimal - 180. I think Federer's primary focus this year is on the grass. He has scheduled an additional tournament - Halle. And if he plays an unscheduled tournament anywhere, it will probably be during the almost 3 week hiatus between Wimbledon and the Olympics. I suspect if he is feeling good after Wimbledon, he might go for the Newport grass, even though it is just a 250, but it's just a hunch. Newport finishes on the 15th. Nadal's charity match was scheduled for the 14th...
Halle is not an additional tournament for him - last year was unusual for him not to play. I think he'll skip MC too as he's played a LOT the last 2 months and it'll catch up with him. I doubt he'll play Newport because the grass there sucks and the competition will be pretty low quality probably. Why fly across the Atlantic when he can just practice in Europe closer to London... Don't think he'll play Nadal's charity match though I hope he does.
Fed's chances to get to no.2 have gone up a lot after yesterday's match but for Fed to outperform Nadal over the next 4 Masters Series too (Miami, MC, Madrid, Rome) is quite an ask. If Fed gets very close I think Rafa will play Madrid as even if he doesn't like it he should reach the semis/final there. He needs to rack up the clay points this year -I doubt Nole will be as good as last year which helps Rafa's chances. Fed on the other hand can be upset early.