Correction. You meant to say "It's not certain that Roger will reach the final". That's OK . Happy to help
On recent form I think it's more likely that Nadal will miss out. Since USO, Federer only lost on Monfils (after having a shit load of MPs) and Murray
Nadal on the other hand lost to GGL, Melzer, Federer. And went into a fair few long tough games.