Think that's going too far Karin. The second half of the season favours Roger's game and he's only 3000 points behind right now which is easily erased with the current system of exponentially greater points for tournament wins. Last year people were calling Rafa a "lock" for the YE#1 as early as May and look how that turned out. I think it's still WIDE open.
I was surely exaggerating for a bit, yeah.
As you say, nothing is set in stone. But still, I wouldn't say the second half of the season favours Roger's game that much anymore, as he's been struggling on HC ever since he won Cincy and reached the USO final just as much as elsewhere (despite winning the AO, where we saw a short-lived ressurrection of Jesus!Fed appearing). I base my opinion on his recent level of play (which is still good, but very far away from his 2005-2007 form) rather than on his results of the past.
Well, as long as it's Fedal occupying the #1 (and #2) position, I don't think I really care.